Car Choice Behavior

Title

"How do people buy fuel-efficient cars?"

Duration

2004 - 2007 (analyses of data still ongoing)

Background and objectives

The purchase of fuel-efficient new cars is a decisive factor with regard to reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from road transport. To design effective measures that could change consumers` car purchase behavior and result in a reduced fuel consumption of newly registered cars, identification of the main parameters and processes driving consumers` decision-making is important. Models forecasting car choice and analyzing the effects of measures to change car choice behavior have focused primarily on sociodemographic differentiation among car buyers, if at all. Psychological variables such as beliefs, attitudes, or norms related to fuel-efficient cars, as well as symbolic motives (motives to express one’s self and one’s social position by means of one’s car) are rarely included. Furthermore, regarding individuals’ responses to policy measures, there is a robust and compelling body of evidence of the bounds to rationality of actual decision makers. Decision processes are often governed by heuristics, cognitive rules of thumb, rather than analytical deliberation.

This project is situated at the interface between natural and social sciences with the following goals:

1. Gaining insight into the psychological factors underlying vehicle purchase with regard to fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions: On the one hand, such insights deliver recommendations for the effective design and implementation of a broad range of measures (e.g., information campaigns). On the other hand, they help to improve models to explain and forecast car choice with respect to fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions (relating to b).
2. Enriching a traditional model to forecast car choice by psychological factors: This model will be needed for the evaluation of fiscal measures to promote the purchase of fuel-efficient vehicles.
3. Developing a microsimulation for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars: An important characteristic of this microsimulation is a behavioral model of consumer decision processes based on the empirical evidence of bounded rationality.
4. The computation of case studies and scenarios to analyze the effects of fiscal measures to increase fuel-efficiency of new vehicles (namely feebate systems).

Method

This project uses i) survey data and ii) databases such as the Swiss vehicle certification database.

The survey data has been provided by a paper-and-pencil survey on mobility and car purchase behavior which we conducted in two waves with a sample of households living in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland. This survey contained, among other items, questions about psychological factors, decision criteria and preferences, acceptance of and susceptibility to measures which are discussed in the context of rising fuel-consumption, vehicles owned by the household, and sociodemographic data.

The first wave was conducted in June 2005: two questionnaires, a so called base questionnaire and a retrospective life biography questionnaire, were sent out to a sample of 5890 households randomly chosen from the Swiss phone book. Both questionnaires of the first wave include questions on sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents and their household, on the vehicles owned by their household and on preferences for a next car purchase. The base questionnaire further contains questions on the importance of various decision criteria within car purchase, as well as questions on acceptance of and hypothetic reaction to measures to reduce energy consumption of road transport. The life history questionnaire further collects data on life events of the past 15 years which may influence car purchase and choice. The average response rate for the two surveys of the first wave reached 39.6% (2333 respondents).

The second wave was sent out in June 2006 to 1545 respondents (66.2% of the sample of the first wave) who were willing to participate again and still reachable under the address in our data base. The questionnaire of the second wave mainly includes questions on the psychological variables presented in Section ‎‎4.1. Additionally, changes in the vehicle stock of the household are surveyed. This questionnaire was sent back by 1150 respondents (74.4%).

For more details refer to (reports in German only):

• Survey questionnaires / Fragebögen (in german and french) »»
• Background report on Wave 1A of the survey "mobility and car purchase" (base survey) / Hintergrundbericht zu Wave 1A der Grossbefragung „Mobilität und Autokauf“ (Basisbefragung) »»
• Background report on Wave 1B of the survey "mobility and car purchase" (survey with life biography questionnaire) / Hintergrundbericht zu Wave 1B der Grossbefragung „Mobilität und Autokauf“ (Befragung mit Lebensverlaufskalender) »»
• Background report on Wave 2 of the survey "mobility and car purchase" / Hintergrundbericht zu Wave 2 der Grossbefragung „Mobilität und Autokauf“ »»

Publications (selection)

Peer-reviewed journals (incl. forthcoming)

(For the links to work properly, you or your institution need a subscription to the respective journal.)

• Peters, A., de Haan, P., & Scholz, R. W. (submitted). Psychological factors influencing fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions within intended and actual car purchase. Manuscript submitted for publication.
• Peters, A., Scholz, R. W., & Gutscher, H. (submitted). Psychological factors that influence the choice of new vehicles with regard to fuel economy and CO₂ emissions. Manuscript submitted for publication.
• Mueller, M. G., & de Haan, P. (accepted). How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars, part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation. Accepted for publication in Energy Policy.
• de Haan, P., Mueller, M. G., & Scholz, R. W. (accepted). How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars, part II: Forecasting effects of CO₂ based feebates on new registrations. Accepted for publication in Energy Policy.
• Peters, A., Mueller, M. G., de Haan, P., & Scholz, R. W. (2008). Feebates promoting energy-efficient cars: Design options to address more consumers and possible counteracting effects. Energy Policy, 36, 1355–1365. »» Download article

Research reports (in German only)

• de Haan, P, Mueller, M. G., Peters, A., & Hauser, A. (2007). Lenkungsabgaben zur Senkung des CO₂-Ausstosses der PKW-Neuzulassungen: Hintergrund, Mechanismen, Prognosen. Schlussbericht. Programm Energiewirtschaftliche Grundlagen, Bundesamt für Energie, Bern.
• de Haan, P., Mueller, M. G., & Peters, A. (2007). Anreizsysteme beim Neuwagenkauf: Wirkungsarten, Wirksamkeit und Wirkungseffizienz. Bericht zum Schweizer Autokaufverhalten Nr. 14 (in German). ETH Zurich, IED-NSSI, report EMDM1561, 23 pages. »» Download report
• Peters, A., de Haan, P., & Mueller, M. G. (2006). Akzeptanz und Wirkung von Massnahmen zur Erhöhung der Treibstoffeffizienz. Ergebnisbericht im Rahmen des Projekts „Entscheidungsfaktoren beim Kauf treibstoff-effizienter Neuwagen“. Bericht zum Schweizer Autokaufverhalten Nr. 12 (in German). ETH Zurich, IED-NSSI, report EMDM2025, 43 pages. »» Download report
• Peters, A., & de Haan, P. (2006). Der Autokäufer - seine Charakteristika und Präferenzen. Ergebnisbericht im Rahmen des Projekts „Entscheidungsfaktoren  beim Kauf treibstoff-effizienter Neuwagen“. Bericht zum Schweizer Autokaufverhalten Nr. 11 (in German). ETH Zurich, IED-NSSI, report EMDM2024, 42 pages. »» Download report
• Mueller, M. G., & de Haan, P. (2006). Autokaufentscheid: Treue zur Marke, zum Fahrzeugsegment, zur Treibstoffart und zum Getriebetyp. Deskriptive Auswertung von Transaktionsdaten (in German). Berichte zum Schweizer Autokaufverhalten Nr. 10. ETH Zurich, IED-NSSI, report EMDM3221, 47 pages. »» Download report

Partner (sponsoring)

auto-schweiz
Erdöl-Vereinigung (EV)
Bundesamt für Energie (BFE)